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A probability and impact matrix is one of the tools and techniques for the PMI process to perform qualitative risk analysis. It is a component of the risk management plan.

The matrix is a table that shows the probability of potential risks crossed by the severity of the impact on the objectives. (Remember that risks can be positive opportunities as well as negative threats.) The table is filled in with values to prioritize the risks. The values could be a numeric scale or a scale like high, medium, or low ratings.

The matrix is described in the PMBOK, 5th edition, sections 11.1.3.1 (plan risk management outputs) and 11.3.2.2 (which shows an example in figure 11-10).

Related: risk probability and impact assessment

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